Fourth Time's a Charm?

In July of 2009 I raced in my first Half Ironman (Racine 70.3).  It was my first endurance event and it exceeded all my expectations.  I raced faster than I thought possible and I actually had FUN.  I was properly trained and had my entire Well-Fit training group waiting for sweaty-hugs at the finish line.

S 0:26 B 3:22 R 2:30

Finish time 6 hours and 23 minutes

In 2010 and 2011 I was determined to become a runner.  I "trained" for my first and second marathons, if you call 2 runs a week training.   Each year I registered for another Half Ironman with good intentions.  Then each year I didn't train.  But, thanks to my mother's upbringing "you don't quit something until the season is over" mentality, along with my own "it's only a HALF Ironman" thoughts- I still completed the races.

In 2010 it was the long, hot, hilly Vineman 70.3 in Sonoma.  It was painful and did I mention HOT?  Two years later what I remember fondly is biking through beautiful vineyards and standing in a misting tent at a winery who's wine I still drink.  I remember how awesome it was to train with my boyfriend-now-fiance, the preceding days of fun in San Fransisco and the follow day of debauchery in Napa.

 S 0:38  B 3:59   R 3:20

Finish time: 8 hours and 10 minutes

In 2011, it was the Door County Bluffman 70.3.  It was hotter than any race and I didn't think that was possible (seriously 110 degrees).  I got more sunburned than ever.  The swim was the scariest I've seen.  But, I did it.  And it was the best run race I've been to, most support-even on a crazy hot day.  I raced 1.5 hours slower than my time in Racine in 2009.  The best part of this race was staying with the serious triathletes (aka. Karins an Ironanimal and friends) in a house on the bay, bonfires, cookouts and triathlon talk.  Second best part was seeing ALL of Door county on bike and foot-BEAUTIFUL.

 S 0:40 B 3:44 R 3:10

Finish Time: 7 hours and 55 minutes

So.  I've done it again.  I registered for another 70.3.  This time in Benton Harbor, Michigan.  Steelhead 70.3.  What are the chances I actually train this year?